Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report Jan 24, 2016
24 Jan, 2016
Vistar Business Monitor
The P5+1 officially implemented the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on January 16 after the IAEA issued its report verifying Iran’s compliance with its commitments under the nuclear deal. The U.S. and the E.U. lifted nuclear-related sanctions in response, although the UN arms embargo and sanctions on Tehran’s ballistic missile program remain in place.
President Hassan Rouhani, hailed the removal of sanctions as “a golden page” in Iran’s history. President Rouhani also submitted the annual budget and the Sixth Five-Year Development Plan to Parliament for review on January 17 following an approximately month-long delay as his administration waited for Implementation Day. The total resources of the budget bill for the upcoming year is recognized 9,526 thousand billion IRR.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury sanctioned 11 entities and individuals linked to Tehran’s ballistic missile program on January 17. Defense Minister IRGC Brig. Gen. Hossein Dehghan reiterated officials’ intransigence on ballistic missiles, vowing that Iran will strengthen its missile capabilities in response to the sanctions.
Approximately 60 percent of candidates in the parliamentary elections were disqualified during the second round of qualifications review. The vast majority of Reformist candidates and many current parliamentarians – some reports indicate as high as 50 – were also rejected. President Hassan Rouhani responded that he will “use all of his power” to address the disqualifications.
Iranian news outlets have reported that Rouhani and Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani would meet with the Guardian Council to discuss the disqualifications. The Guardian Council is nevertheless likely uphold the vast majority of its disqualifications of Reformist candidates, as it has done in previous elections, in order to prevent the emergence of an influential Reformist bloc in Parliament.
Rouhani has faced calls from Reformist leaders to interfere on their behalf after they were disproportionately disqualified from the elections, and Rouhani himself pledged to use “all of his power” as president to address unjustified disqualifications. The Guardian Council is currently investigating complaints from recently disqualified candidates until February 5.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei defended the Guardian Council’s disqualification of candidates and condemned the January 12 storming of the Saudi embassy.
On the economic note, the Statistical Center of Iran announced the average CPI increased by 12.2% in the 12-month period ending January 20, which marks the end of the Iranian month of Dey. The year-on-year CPI increased by 9.4% compared with the same month of last year.
The Statistical Center also announced the unemployment rate in the third quarter of the current Iranian year (September 23-December 21) stood at 10.7%.
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