Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report Feb 28, 2016
Feb., 2016
Vistar Business Monitor
Millions of Iranians went to the polls to cast their ballots for the Parliament and Assembly of Experts elections last Friday. At least 33 million (60 percent) out of the 55 million eligible voters took part in the elections.
Iran’s reformist president, Hassan Rouhani, and allies have won all of Tehran’s 30 parliamentary seats in elections, with 90 percent of votes counted so far. The first five candidates are Mohammadreza Aref, Ali Motahari, Alireza Mahjoub, Soheyla Jelodarzadeh and Elias Hazrati. The leading conservative candidate Gholamali Haddad-Adel is said to be in 31st place.
The preliminary results of the vote count for the Assembly of Experts reveal that in Tehran moderate figures Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mohammad Emami Kashani, and President Hassan Rohani are in the first three positions, respectively. The reformist gains come despite the disqualification of thousands of candidates by hard-liners on Iran’s powerful Guardian Council.
President Rouhani released a statement after the initial results were announced and claimed that the polls gave the government more credibility and power. He said, “The competition came to an end and now it is time to open a new way through consensus and convergence of the nation and government and by relying on opportunities created from outside, to open a new chapter in the growth and flourishing of national economy.”
A second round of elections is to be conducted in several cities where candidates received less than 25 percent of votes. The final tally must be established by the conservative-dominated Guardian Council, which has been accused by the reformists over the electoral process.
On the economic note, the Central Bank of Iran announced that the average inflation rate in the urban area for the 12-month period to the eleventh Iranian calendar month of Bahman (ended on Feb. 20) hit 12.6 percent. The month-over-month (M-o-M) inflation rate increased by 0.2%. The country’s year-over-year inflation in the mentioned month was 8.9 percent, 0.7 percent less than the previous month, the CBI said Feb. 24.
Also according to the latest report of the Central Bank of Iran the Producer Price Index in the 12-month period ending February 19, which marks the end of the Iranian month of Bahman, increased 5.5% compared with last year’s corresponding period. The index registered a year-over-year increase of 3.4% compared with the similar month of last year. PPI (using 2011 as the base year) stood at 214.6 in Bahman, indicating a 0.2% decline compared with the previous month.
Recession continued in Iran’s non-oil trade in the 11-month period to Feb. 19, latest reports released by the Customs Administration show. Although the trade balance was positive, the volume of trade was lower than the same period last year, making authorities concerned. During the review period, Iran exported $38.97 billion and imported $37.27 billion of goods. That means the total trade stood at $76.24 billion. Iran had an export target of $61 billion target for a 12-month period ending March 19, but it was only able to materialize 64% of its set target in the 11-month period.
Table of Contents
Notes
Overview
News Highlights
Economic Affairs
Macro-economy
Trade Recession
Economic Implications of the Elections
The Economy Continues to Limp
Macro-economic Data
Oil and Gas Weekly Review
Iran needs US$200bn in Oil Investments
Trade
Domestic Affairs
Parliament and Assembly of Experts Elections
How Will Outcomes of Friday Elections Playout?
Constructive Alliance
Key Political and Economic Calendar
International Affairs
Iran’s Involvement in Syria
Financial Markets
Tehran Stock Exchange
Foreign Investment in Iran’s Equity Markets Is Growing Fast
Foreign Exchange Market
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