Overview: Iran Analysis Weekly Report May 29, 2016
29 May, 2016
Vistar Business Monitor
Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, who is also the current head of the Guardian Council, won the chairmanship with 51 votes, well above a majority from the 86 members present. Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Movahedi Kermani and Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, meanwhile, were elected Jannati’s first deputy and second deputy respectively. Expediency Discernment Council Chairman and former head of the Assembly of Experts Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani did not run in the internal election. Jannati’s election demonstrates that the regime’s old guard will continue to dominate the Assembly of Experts, despite the fact that its current chairman and a noted hardliner, Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, was not re-elected to the Assembly. Jannati will serve as the Assembly’s chair for a two-year term. The Assembly of Experts is constitutionally charged with selecting the next Supreme Leader, although other groups will almost certainly influence the decision.
Parliamentarians renewed debate on the bill during the last session of the principlist-dominated ninth Parliament on May 24. The IRGC Intelligence Organization and the Judiciary would join the Ministry of Intelligence and Security in confirming security-related appointments. The Guardian Council, which must approve legislation before it becomes law, had rejected the bill in March after finding several parts to be unconstitutional and will need to approve the amended legislation. It is unclear what the tenth Parliament, which opens on May 27, will do with the bill.
On the economic note, unlike the reports the Iranian Statistical Center has released, the Central Bank of Iran says the monthly inflation rate of Ordibehesht (April 21 – May 20) was 0.9 percent. The ISC’s report put the figure at 0.4 percent for Ordibehesht. According to the data released by the CBI, year-over-year inflation in Ordibehesht stood at 7.3 percent while the average inflation rate was 10.4 percent.
The budget law approved by the parliament shows that the total budget for the country amounts to 9.78 quadrillion rials, which shows 15.6 percent increase compared to that of the last year. The figure also increased by 2.7 percent compared to the budget bill submitted to the parliament by the administration.
Total of 15,431 homes were sold in Tehran during the month that ended on May 20, which was a y/y increase of 8.2%. It is seen as a sign that the property market is slowly but steadily awaking from the long slumber that saw home sales drop to historic lows. The average price of residential units reached 40.1 million rials ($1,300) per m2, up by 2.8% compared to the same period last year.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi concluded a two-day visit to Iran by signing a draft of agreements Monday, including two key deals that will likely enable him to circumvent contentious neighbor and regional rival Pakistan — thereby establishing a crucial economic and strategic pathway toward the rest of the world.
The most noteworthy of the 12 agreements signed between Modi and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is India’s investment of $500 million into developing Iran’s Chabahar port, considered an important entrepôt leading to Afghanistan and onward to Central Asia. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani also later joined the two leaders to sign a trilateral transit agreement that will significantly ease the passage of goods between the three countries and boost trade.
Banking restrictions on Iran’s euro conversion have been lifted, director general of the Iranian foreign ministry’s political and international affairs department Hamid Baeedinejad said on Sunday. Banking restrictions on Iran to convert foreign exchanges to euro have been abolished.
Deputy Oil Minister Rokneddin Javadi stated that “the volume of Iranian crude oil exports excluding condensed natural gas has increased to two million barrels per day.” Javadi added that the country “has no intention to reduce oil production.”
On the international note, the E3+1 (France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States) late last week issued an important public statement regarding JCPOA implementation.
The impetus behind the statement was evident: Iran has yet to receive much practical value from the lifting of U.S. nuclear-related sanctions; and, as a result, there are persistent concerns as to whether the United States is living up to its sanctions-lifting commitments under the nuclear accord.
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